Bilateral relations between countries and the complexity of newspaper editorials
Bilateral
relations between countries and the complexity of newspaper editorials
The archival measure of integrative
complexity, developed by Suedfeld and Rank (1976), is one of several procedures
for the systematic study of documentary evidence to infer various
characteristics of the interactions between countries (e.g., Axelrod, 1976;
Ertel, 1972; George, 1969; Hermann, 1980; Mehrabian, 1967; Winter, 1987). Integrative
complexity is defined as the joint operation of two components of information
processing: differentiation (the perception of 'The University of British
Columbia. 601 0162-895X/92/1200-0601$06.50/1 ? 1992 International Society of
Political Psychology
Suedfeld several dimensions in a
stimulus situation or of several perspectives on the situation) and integration
(the recognition of relations among differentiated dimensions or perspectives,
e.g., as interacting, as capable of being integrated, or as being relevant to
some overarching event or idea). Evidence of differentiation and integration in
verbal (written or oral) statements can be reliably assessed by trained scorers
(see Method). A large number of studies have shown level of complexity to vary
with environmental and personal stress, political ideology, and social role,
inter alia (Suedfeld, Tetlock, & Streufert, 1992). Most of these studies
have used governmental documents or the pronouncements of officials as the data
sources. Level of complexity is important because it indicates differences in
decision-making strategies: for example, sever- al studies have confirmed the
association between reduced complexity of governmental communications during
international crises and imminent war (Suedfeld & Tetlock, 1977; Suedfeld,
Tetlock, & Ramirez, 1977; Suedfeld & Bluck, 1988). Periods of
international crisis are associated with reductions in complexity not only in
official documents but also in such diverse materials as personal letters,
editorials in a scientific journal, and presidential addresses to the American
Psychological Association (Porter & Suedfeld, 1981; Suedfeld, 1981, 1985).
These data may indicate a general state of rising tension within a society,
which in turn may affect information processing and decision-making at both the
private and public levels: for example, it may influence readiness for or
against negotiated compromise as the solution to problems. The overwhelming
majority of archival materials used in such studies have consisted of
governmental communications, memoranda, policy papers, and the like, and the
private or professional correspondence and speeches of various societal elites.
Relatively little attention has been paid to the mass media, except as they
reproduce the other kinds of materials. Systematic content analysis of media
content has been used to study various aspects of national and international
politics-e.g., to identify publications that served as disguised propaganda
outlets for Nazi Germany, to monitor sequential changes in Comintern policy
toward and away from cooperation with noncommunist countries and groups
(Lasswell, Leites, & associates, 1949). Structural-i.e.,
complexity-analysis may also provide interesting data. The current study
focuses on the association between international relations and the complexity
of editorials in periodicals of broad readership and impact. Further, it looks
at the concomitants of events that are more "normal" than
international crises: that is, events that affect relations between pairs of
countries positively or negatively but for the most part without carrying major
risks such as war. Both communist bloc and Western publications were included
to assess possible differences between the two types of system in this respect.
Three major questions are addressed: 602
Bilateral Relations Between
Countries and the Complexity of Newspaper Editorials 1. Will the complexity of
newspaper editorials reflect lessening or increasing levels of international
tension even when events do not reach the level of crisis but are of a more
routine nature (such as trade agreements, diplomatic visits, U.N. votes, and
the like)? Our hypothesis was that such changes would be found, showing the
effects of "disruptive stress": i.e., changed complexity in times of
increasing tension. 2. Will there be a difference between publications of
communist and Western countries in this regard? One might expect so. In the
former case, until very recently newspapers were instruments of the government
and supported the government's current policies. While American and Canadian
newspapers may be more or less subject to subtle governmental reinforcement
(e.g., "leaks" of restricted information) or the lack of it, as well
as needing to stay in step with public opinion, editorial philosophies are
developed within the newspaper and may or may not be congruent with
governmental views (cf. Charles, Shore, & Todd, 1979; Downing, 1988;
Dreier, 1982). On the other hand, the effects of international tension on
complexity have been shown to be quite pervasive in society-but these findings
were based on times of crisis. We predicted that there would be a closer
association between tension and editorial complexity in the communist than in
the Western sources. 3. The third question involves the absolute level of
complexity rather than changes in complexity. Because of previous findings, we
predicted that Pravda will generally show lower complexity-more dogmatism, less
flexibility and recognition of alternate points of view-than the Western publications.
The relevant findings showed such differences between American and Soviet
govern- mental statements (Suedfeld et al., 1977; Tetlock, 1988; Wallace &
Suedfeld, 1988), although the current reformist leaders of the U.S.S.R. may
break the pattern (Tetlock & Boettger, 1989). METHOD The two types of data
used in this study were 1. Editorials from national newspapers, scored for
integrative complexity. 2. Events involving both members of each pair of
countries, scored on a scale of extremely positive to extremely negative.
Source Documents The documents analyzed were editorials that appeared in the
newspaper of a particular country (the "source country") and had as
their topic relations with, or the actions of, a specific other country (the
"subject country"). The source 603
Suedfeld countries were the Soviet
Union, Canada, and the United States; the subject countries were these three
plus the People's Republic of China. The choice of newspapers was based on the
national and international prominence of the publications. This was no problem
in the case of the U.S.S.R. Pravda was an official national newspaper with wide
domestic and foreign circulation. Its 11 million subscribers and up to 40
million readers included the elite of the Soviet Union: members of the
intelligentsia (22% of the readership), engineers and technicians (18%), and
90% of the members of the Communist Party. More than any other Soviet
newspaper, Pravda had the "task of presenting Party policy, in the most
unambiguous and authoritative form, both for domestic consumption and for the
world outside" (Roxburgh, 1987, p. 79). The New York Times is certainly
one of the most prestigious and widely distributed American dailies. In a 1982
poll of newspaper publishers, editors, and professors of journalism, it was a
clear first choice as the best newspaper in the country, a tradition it has
long held by "telling the news with completeness and integrity"
(Emery & Emery, 1984, p. 653). It has long been considered the newspaper of
record, and has been described as "a key part of every Washington
journalist's and every legislator's morning. The Times is an indispensable
source for writers, editors and embassies. It's sober, steady and hardly ever
rocks the establishment boat; it's been viewed by foreign governments as a
reliable chronicle of American positions" (Tataryn, 1985, p. 71). Although
Canada has no real equivalent of either of the above two publications, the
Toronto Globe and Mail calls itself, and is generally considered to be the closest
approximation of, Canada's national (rather than local or regional) newspaper
(Tataryn, 1985). Like the other two, it is distributed nationwide and appeals
primarily to a relatively well-educated readership. Relevant editorials (those
dealing with any of the four subject countries) were collected from these three
newspapers (for Pravda, using the English translations in The Current Digest of
the Soviet Press) for every year between 1947 and 1982. There were some
problems in selecting material to be scored. Most editorials in all of the
newspapers dealt with domestic issues, and in some years few editorials
appeared dealing with some subject countries (both the Times and Pravda had
relatively few editorials related to Canada). Furthermore, these editorials varied
greatly in length. We decided to use databases of equal size as far as
possible. For each source newspaper during each year, all editorials dealing
with the subject country were identified. The complete texts of up to five of
these (all, if there were only five or fewer in the sample; otherwise, five
were selected randomly) were copied into the computer, which then used a random
numbers program to select five scorable paragraphs. The selected paragraphs
were pre- pared for scoring by the removal of any names, dates, or other
specific material that would identify either the source or the subject country.
604
Bilateral Relations Between
Countries and the Complexity of Newspaper Editorials Complexity Scoring Each
paragraph was then scored for integrative complexity. The two scorers had
participated in a one-week training workshop and had reached acceptable levels
of reliability (r = .85 or higher) with the trainer on an extensive set of
training passages. In addition, they had performed complexity scoring on previous
research materials, and had maintained an interrater reliability of at least
80% with each other. This is a more rigorous criterion than the reliability
coefficient, as it requires agreement on specific scores rather than merely a
correlation. The scorers rated each paragraph independently, using a detailed
scoring manual as an additional resource (Baker-Brown, Ballard, Bluck, de
Vries, Suedfeld, & Tetlock, 1992). The scoring system uses a scale of 1-7,
with each paragraph scored separately. The bottom half of the scale (1-3)
identifies increasing levels of differentiation: the recognition and
utilization of different stimulus dimensions, and/or of different perspectives,
in judging the stimulus (which may be another person, an event, an idea, a country,
etc.). Scores of 5-7 recognize increased integration (syntheses, interactions,
trade-offs) among the differentiated dimensions or perspectives, with 4 as a
transition score (see Table I for examples). Paragraphs that consist entirely
of factual statements (e.g., statistics, historical events) or quota- Table I.
Complexity of Editorials: Examples Score Year Countries Paragraph 1 1951
USSR-Canada "Ordinary Canadians are meeting 1952 in a situation of
continually deteriorating living conditions. The number of unemployed, which
has reached almost 200,000, is increasing in the country. Queues of unemployed
and homeless stand at the doors of charitable institutions waiting for
Christmas alms." EXPLANATION OF SCORE: Only one dimension or perspective
is presented, i.e., the plight of unemployed and homeless Canadians. 3 1951
Canada-USA "Events have justified these assertions all along the line. The
facts in the UN survey, together with what we see happening on this continent,
completely discount the views of those Pollyannas who say inflation has just
about run its course. There is, in fact, no limit to its possible extension so
long as the factors causing it are still operative. Stockpiling has not denuded
the world of essential materials. But it has boosted prices to a new high
table-land undreamed of a few years ago. Higher military production at home has
created new volumes of consumer demand, so that countries abroad are virtually
unable to purchase with their new flood of dollars the full range of American products
which would be useful in stabilizing their respective economies."
EXPLANATION OF SCORE: Several causes of inflation are recognized: stockpiling,
military production, greater consumer demand, and the inability of other
countries to buy American products, even though they have the money. 5 1954
USA-PRC "The British delegation also found out that Mao Tse-tung wants
Britain to spearhead a drive against US foreign policy, and wants trade with
Britain and other Western countries. The latter, presumably, is the bait for
the former." EXPLANATION OF SCORE: Not only are two dimensions recognized
(trade and foreign policy), but a causal inference integrating the two (the
former is being used as a tool to obtain goals related to the latter).
Suedfeld tions, without evaluation
or commentary, are deemed unscorable and are replaced. Interrater disagreements
of one scale point are resolved by discussion; paragraphs where disagreement
reaches two or more points are discarded and replaced. Not all of these
paragraphs were used in the final data analysis, because there were years
during the sampling period when bilateral events involving any pair of
countries could not be characterized as having positive or negative valence
(see Events, below). Table II shows the number of years for which both an
acceptable sample of editorials and valenced events were available. For the
total of 133 country/years, the number of paragraphs used from relevant source
editorials (those dealing with the particular subject country) were five paragraphs
for 50 years each from the Globe and Mail and the Times (total of 250 for each
of these two), and from Pravda, five paragraphs for 26 years (= 130) plus seven
years with fewer than five relevant paragraphs each (total = 24), for a total
of 654 paragraphs included in the data analysis. Mean complexity ratings were
calculated for each newspaper, for each year, for each subject country. These
means were used in the subsequent data analyses. Events A total of 315 relevant
historical events were identified from the Encyclopedia Britannica Book of the
Year in the years 1947-1982. This encyclopedia was used because its yearbooks
note significant events involving major nations soon after the events occur.
Relevant events were operationally defined as those involving one of the source
and one of the subject countries. In preparation for further scoring, a
description of each event was transferred to an index card. All possible
precautions were taken to remove identifying information such as the names of
the countries, well-known individuals, and dates. All cards were then scored
independently on a scale of -3 to +3 by five research assistants who were
uninformed about the topic of this particular study. The raters were instructed
to assign negative numbers when in their judgment the Table II. Scorable
"Country/Years"a Subject Source Canada USSR China USA Total Canada
-14 9 27 50 U.S.S.R. 4 - 13 16 33 U.S.A. 13 27 10 -50 Total 17 41 32 43 133 a
Number of years for which both relevant editorials and valenced events were
available. 606
Bilateral Relations Between
Countries and the Complexity of Newspaper Editorials Table III. Positive and
Negative Events: Examples Score Year Countries Event Positive +2.6 1970
Canada-P.R.C. Diplomatic ties established. +2.4 1981 U.S.A.-U.S.S.R. Trade
increases nearly 50% over previous year Neutral +0.4 1978 U.S.A.-Canada U.S.
considering natural-gas pipeline through Canada; mixed economic results
anticipated for Canada. 0.0 1971 U.S.A.-P.R.C. U.S. president says forthcoming
visit to the U.S.S.R. has no connection with visit to P.R.C. Negative -2.4 1980
U.S.A.-U.S.S.R. U.S. boycott of Moscow Olympic Games. -2.8 1960 U.S.S.R.-U.S.A.
Soviets shoot down U.S. aircraft over Bering Sea event was characterized by or
led to international tension, hostility, conflict, strained or reduced
interactions, etc.; and positive numbers when the event reflected or led to
friendship, friendly trade and exchanges, alliances, agree- ments, treaties and
the like (Table III). Interrater correlations across all events were .82-.90,
indicating a high level of agreement. Six events, which received ambivalent
ratings, were dropped. Although the raters had experience in research on
international relations, they were not professional experts. However, the high
interrater agreement indicates that the stimuli were sufficiently clear-cut
that no great degree of expertise was required to categorize them. Event
ratings were then averaged within each year for use in further analyses.
RESULTS As the relations between two countries became more positive, there was
a significantly higher level of complexity in the editorials of each country
referring to the other, r = .26, p < .001. This pattern did not differ
significantly among the countries. Table IV shows mean complexity scores. The
overall means were 1.83 for years with positive relations and 1.62 for years in
which relations were negative, F(1, 132) = 3.67, p < .06. A 2 x 2 ANOVA
showed significant differences in integrative complexity among the countries in
which the editorials appeared: Ms = 1.92 for Canada, 1.81 for the U.S.A., and
1.35 for the U.S.S.R., F(2, 132) = 16.10, p < .0001 (see Table IV). The
difference between Canada and the United States was not statistically
significant, but both countries differed significantly from the Soviet 607
Suedfeld Table IV. Mean Complexity
Scores Positive Years Negative Years Country (No. of Yrs.) (No. of Yrs.)
Source: Toronto Globe and Mail (Canada) Subject U.S.A. 1.99 (18) 1.68 (19)
U.S.S.R. 1.93 (9) 1.90 (5) P.R.C. 2.04 (7) 2.00 (2) Source: New York Times
(USA) Subject Canada 2.09 (7) 1.98 (6) U.S.S.R. 1.88 (12) 1.58 (15) P.R.C. 1.97
(6) 1.50 (4) Source: Pravda (U.S.S.R.) Subject Canada 1.53 (3) 1.00 (1) U.S.A.
1.32 (8) 1.59 (8) P.R.C. 1.18 (5) 1.24 (8) III* -II - III.- - I,~ Union by the
Tukey test for pairwise comparisons. There were no significant differences as a
function of which country was being written about. The three countries differed
in the prevalence of positive and negative interactions. The means were +0.64
for Canada, +0.15 for the U.S.A., and -0.08 for the Soviet Union, F(2, 132) =
3.13, p < .05. None of the pairwise comparisons was statistically
significant. DISCUSSION As predicted, integrative complexity was negatively
correlated with international tension. This finding extends previous data
indicating that international stress is associated with reduced complexity.
Unlike the situation in previous studies, the events included here consisted
primarily of minor or routine episodes such as international trade transactions
and political negotiations. Event-related changes in complexity, even under
such mundane conditions, may be an indication of how useful the measure is in
tracking the impact of world events. Our data do not indicate to what extent
there is an actual change in how editorial writers process information as
opposed to deliberately attempting to manipulate the tone of public discussion
(Tetlock & Manstead, 1985). One important implication of this finding is
the unexpected pervasiveness of tension-related complexity decrease even when
the precipitating events are with- in the normal range of international
relations. The fact that societal opinion leaders are affected in this way by
impending or actual war may have been less 608
Bilateral Relations Between Countries
and the Complexity of Newspaper Editorials surprising (Porter & Suedfeld,
1981; Suedfeld, 1981, 1985); but the current findings are novel in implying a
broad domestic effect of relatively minor changes in the intercourse between
pairs of nations. The low intensity of these international transactions was
reflected in the mean ratings assigned to events. The high positive mean score
for Canada may reflect the absence of serious confrontations between Canada and
the other countries studied, at least since the end of the Korean War.
International events involving the United States and the Soviet Union averaged
closer to the neutral point, with the U.S. slightly on the positive side and
the U.S.S.R. slightly on the negative. This is not surprising: during the years
involved, Canada and the United States generally agreed on a wide range of
issues while the Soviet Union was in opposition to both of them as well as, for
much of the period, to the People's Republic of China. Presumably, the results
would have been different had we included more Warsaw Pact countries or if we
had extended the study past 1989. The association between international
relations and newspaper editorials was similar in Western and communist
countries. Although editorials in Pravda were essentially official statements
of the government (Roxburgh, 1987), the tie between governmental and editorial
policy is a controversial issue in the West. Both the Globe and Mail and the
Times are generally considered "establish- ment." They are not radical
opponents of the system of government of their country. At times (particularly
in crisis situations), they cooperate with the government by suppressing or
delaying the publication of some item or even by sharing information (e.g.,
Salisbury, 1980). In turn, government figures frequently take their cue from
these newspapers (Tataryn, 1985). On the other hand, both the Times and the
Globe and Mail have a record of vigorously and frequently dissenting from
governmental policies and positions. Perhaps the most dramatic example in
recent history was the publication of the Pentagon Papers in the Times; but the
paper also opposed many other aspects of domestic and foreign policy through
successive administrations. Similarly, the Globe and Mail (like many other
Canadian newspapers) often expresses its opposition to current policies (see,
e.g., Rutherford, 1978; Westell, 1977). Thus, another surprising finding was
the close association between governmental ac- tions and the treatment of such
actions in even independent print media. The finding that all three papers show
editorial changes in complexity consonant with international events may be a
reflection of the direct or indirect influence of the government on the media.
Another interpretation is that government officials and editorial writers share
a set of viewpoints that evokes similar reactions in response to particular
events. These hypotheses, of course, are not mutually exclusive. Pravda was
consistently lower in complexity than the Western newspapers. Until very
recently, the same pattern has characterized Soviet diplomatic state- 609
Suedfeld ments compared to those of
various other governments (Suedfeld et al., 1977; Tetlock, 1988; Tetlock &
Boettger, 1989; Wallace & Suedfeld, 1988). These differences may reflect
(a) a greater need on the part of Soviet sources to seek clarity and avoid
ambiguity, (b) dogmatic ideological or defensive attitudes, (c) different
rhetorical and linguistic traditions, or (d) different goals in impression
management. The last of these may involve the wish to project an image of high
complexity (considering all sides of an issue, tolerance for uncertainty and
dis- agreement) by Western sources and/or to project low complexity (party
unity, decisiveness, certainty, lack of ambivalence) by Soviet ones (Tetlock,
1988; Tetlock & Manstead, 1985). As mentioned earlier, another factor could
be the relatively high chronic tension that existed in the period under study
between the U.S.S.R. and the two Western countries, as compared to relations
between the latter two. Among topics for future research are comparisons of
such prestigious publications as those in our sample with more mass-oriented
print and electronic media; the relation among official policy statements,
private commentary by national leaders, and the media; and comparisons between
newspapers associated with governing versus opposition parties. The study of
editorial complexity of Eastern European and Soviet publications in the
glasnost era would also be interesting. The findings demonstrate the pervasive
interaction among governmental actions, political climate, and the media, as
well as the sensitivity of the complexity measure to even low-key shifts in
international tension. Because of this sensitivity, complexity may be a particularly
good variable to use in future research on mass media. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This
research was made possible by a grant from the Social Sciences and Humanities
Research Council of Canada. The assistance of Gloria Baker-Brown, Susan Bluck,
Luzbea Piedrahita, Wendy Ross, and Alistair B. C. Wallbaum in various aspects
of the research is gratefully acknowledged. Correspondence should be addressed
to the author at Department of Psychology, University of British Columbia,
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